LP-218 - Pre-Midterm Elections Results USA : Six Betting Markets, Six Polls & Historical Evidence - Is a Democratic Landslide Possible? Evidence Assessment 2 November 2026
LP-218 — Pre-Midterm Elections USA: Evidence Snapshot 2 November 2026 Six Betting Markets • Six Polling Organisations • Historical Evidence An evidence-based assessment of the 2026 US pre-midterm elections, comparing six betting-market readings, six polling organisations and historical results to examine Democratic gains, the possibility of a landslide and electoral uncertainty. Keywords: US Midterms 2026, election polls, betting markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Democratic gains, landslide, House control, Senate control, polling accuracy, historical midterms, election evidence, CES, LP-218 Will the 2026 US Midterm Elections produce a Democratic landslide? LP-218 examines six betting markets, six polls and historical results to assess Democratic gains, electoral uncertainty and what the evidence can—and cannot—establish. Author: Llewelyn Pritchard MA Evidence snapshot date: 2 November 2026 Purpose: Pre-election baseline for the post-election assessment in LP-219. PURPOSE AND CORE PRINCIPLE ...